An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China | Zendy

Wenjing Zhu | Zendy; Shoufeng Shen | Zendy

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An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China

Author(s) -

Wenjing Zhu,

Shoufeng Shen

Publication year - 2021

Publication title -

results in physics

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.743

H-Index - 56

ISSN - 2211-3797

DOI - 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104289

Subject(s) - covid-19 , epidemic model , interval (graph theory) , similarity (geometry) , china , statistics , basic reproduction number , cure rate , demography , mathematics , computer science , medicine , virology , disease , artificial intelligence , geography , outbreak , combinatorics , infectious disease (medical specialty) , environmental health , population , sociology , image (mathematics) , archaeology

In this letter, an improved SIR (ISIR) model is proposed, to analyze the spread of COVID-19 during the time window 21/01/2020–08/02/2021. The parameters can be extracted from an inverse problem of the ISIR to assess the risk of COVID-19. This study identifies that the cure rate is 0.05 and the reproduction number is 0.4490 during the time interval. The prediction values demonstrates high similarity to the reported data. The results indicate that the disease had been under control in China.

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