A new SEIAR model on small-world networks to assess the intervention measures in the COVID-19 pandemics
Author(s) -
Jie Li,
Jiu Chang Zhong,
Yong-Mao Ji,
Fang Yang
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
results in physics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.743
H-Index - 56
ISSN - 2211-3797
DOI - 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104283
Subject(s) - social distance , pandemic , covid-19 , transmission (telecommunications) , epidemic model , intervention (counseling) , process (computing) , computer science , distancing , business , operations research , virology , risk analysis (engineering) , psychology , environmental health , medicine , telecommunications , engineering , disease , population , pathology , psychiatry , outbreak , infectious disease (medical specialty) , operating system
A new susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatically infected-removed (SEIAR) model is developed to depict the COVID-19 transmission process, considering the latent period and asymptomatically infected. We verify the suppression effect of typical measures, cultivating human awareness, and reducing social contacts. As for social contacts, the feasible measures encompass cutting off social connections, isolating infected communities, and isolating hub nodes. Furthermore, it is found that implementing corresponding anti-epidemic measures at different pandemic stages can achieve significant results at a low cost. In the beginning, restricting social connection is necessary, but isolating infected wards and hub nodes could be more beneficial as the situation eases. The proposed SEIAR model emphasizes the latent period and asymptomatically infected, thus providing theoretical support for subsequent research.
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