Modeling Ivory Coast COVID-19 cases: Identification of a high-performance model for utilization | Zendy

Ugochinyere Ihuoma Nwosu | Zendy; Chukwudi Paul Obite | Zendy

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Modeling Ivory Coast COVID-19 cases: Identification of a high-performance model for utilization

Author(s) -

Ugochinyere Ihuoma Nwosu,

Chukwudi Paul Obite

Publication year - 2020

Publication title -

results in physics

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.743

H-Index - 56

ISSN - 2211-3797

DOI - 10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103763

Subject(s) - autoregressive integrated moving average , covid-19 , mean squared error , quartic function , statistics , mathematics , econometrics , medicine , disease , time series , infectious disease (medical specialty) , pathology , pure mathematics

This study modelled the reported daily cumulative confirmed, discharged and death Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases using six econometric models in simple, quadratic, cubic and quartic forms and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The models were compared employing R-squared and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The best model was used to forecast confirmed, discharged and death COVID-19 cases for October 2020 to February 2021. The predicted number of confirmed and death COVID-19 cases are alarming. Good planning and innovative approaches are required to prevent the forecasted alarming infection and death in Ivory Coast. The applications of findings of this study will ensure that the COVID-19 does not crush the Ivory Coast’s health, economic, social and political systems.

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