Modeling the pandemic trend of 2019 Coronavirus with optimal control analysis | Zendy

BiBi Fatima | Zendy; Gul Zaman | Zendy; Manar A. Alqudah | Zendy; Thabet Abdeljawad | Zendy

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Modeling the pandemic trend of 2019 Coronavirus with optimal control analysis

Author(s) -

BiBi Fatima,

Gul Zaman,

Manar A. Alqudah,

Thabet Abdeljawad

Publication year - 2020

Publication title -

results in physics

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.743

H-Index - 56

ISSN - 2211-3797

DOI - 10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103660

Subject(s) - basic reproduction number , transmissibility (structural dynamics) , pandemic , transmission (telecommunications) , covid-19 , coronavirus , isolation (microbiology) , outbreak , epidemic model , stability (learning theory) , computer science , work (physics) , optimal control , sensitivity (control systems) , control (management) , mathematical optimization , mathematics , disease , virology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , engineering , biology , physics , medicine , artificial intelligence , bioinformatics , environmental health , telecommunications , machine learning , population , electronic engineering , pathology , vibration , mechanical engineering , vibration isolation , quantum mechanics

In this work, we propose a mathematical model to analyze the outbreak of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The proposed model portrays the multiple transmission pathways in the infection dynamics and stresses the role of the environmental reservoir in the transmission of the disease. The basic reproduction number R0is calculated from the model to assess the transmissibility of the COVID-19. We discuss sensitivity analysis to clarify the importance of epidemic parameters. The stability theory is used to discuss the local as well as the global properties of the proposed model. The problem is formulated as an optimal control one to minimize the number of infected people and keep the intervention cost as low as possible. Medical mask, isolation, treatment, detergent spray will be involved in the model as time dependent control variables. Finally, we present and discuss results by using numerical simulations.

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