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Nonlinear duration dependence in stock market cycles
Author(s) -
Harman Yvette S.,
Zuehlke Thomas W.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
review of financial economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.347
H-Index - 41
eISSN - 1873-5924
pISSN - 1058-3300
DOI - 10.1016/j.rfe.2006.08.001
Subject(s) - weibull distribution , stock market , economics , econometrics , duration (music) , stock (firearms) , nonlinear model , nonlinear system , financial economics , mathematics , statistics , physics , engineering , geography , mechanical engineering , context (archaeology) , archaeology , quantum mechanics , acoustics
We reexamine duration dependence in stock market cycles using a generalized Weibull model. Recent empirical work by Cochran and DeFina [Cochran, S. J., & DeFina, R. H. (1995). Duration dependence in the U.S. stock market cycle: A parametric approach. Applied Financial Economics , 5, 309–318.], who use a chronology of stock market cycles to estimate a Weibull hazard model, shows duration dependence in stock prices. They find evidence of duration dependence in prewar market expansions and postwar market contractions. We update their postwar sample, then use a more flexible model that finds evidence of duration dependence for all prewar and postwar samples. The generalized Weibull model is shown to be statistically superior to the conventional Weibull model for all samples except prewar expansions.