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Demand forecasting and order planning for humanitarian logistics: An empirical assessment
Author(s) -
Laan Erwin,
Dalen Jan,
Rohrmoser Michael,
Simpson Rob
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
journal of operations management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.649
H-Index - 191
eISSN - 1873-1317
pISSN - 0272-6963
DOI - 10.1016/j.jom.2016.05.004
Subject(s) - order (exchange) , business , demand forecasting , humanitarian logistics , volatility (finance) , operations research , operations management , term (time) , marketing , computer science , process management , environmental economics , economics , finance , engineering , physics , quantum mechanics
Humanitarian aid organizations are most known for their short‐term emergency relief. While getting aid items to those in need can be challenging, long‐term projects provide an opportunity for demand planning supported by forecasting methods. Based on standardized consumption data of the Operational Center Amsterdam of Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF‐OCA) regarding nineteen longer‐term aid projects and over 2000 medical items consumed in 2013, we describe and analyze the forecasting and order planning process. We find that several internal and external factors influence forecast and order planning performance, be it indirectly through demand volatility and safety markup. Moreover, we identify opportunities for further improvement for MSF‐OCA, and for humanitarian logistics organizations in general.