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A point‐based tool to predict conversion from mild cognitive impairment to probable Alzheimer's disease
Author(s) -
Barnes Deborah E.,
Cenzer Irena S.,
Yaffe Kristine,
Ritchie Christine S.,
Lee Sei J.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
alzheimer's and dementia
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.713
H-Index - 118
eISSN - 1552-5279
pISSN - 1552-5260
DOI - 10.1016/j.jalz.2013.12.014
Subject(s) - neuropsychology , magnetic resonance imaging , cognition , neuroimaging , alzheimer's disease , cognitive impairment , neuropsychological test , psychology , medicine , disease , audiology , neuroscience , radiology
Background Our objective in this study was to develop a point‐based tool to predict conversion from amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to probable Alzheimer's disease (AD). Methods Subjects were participants in the first part of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify factors associated with development of AD, and a point score was created from predictors in the final model. Results The final point score could range from 0 to 9 (mean 4.8) and included: the Functional Assessment Questionnaire (2‒3 points); magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) middle temporal cortical thinning (1 point); MRI hippocampal subcortical volume (1 point); Alzheimer's Disease Cognitive Scale—cognitive subscale (2‒3 points); and the Clock Test (1 point). Prognostic accuracy was good (Harrell's c = 0.78; 95% CI 0.75, 0.81); 3‐year conversion rates were 6% (0‒3 points), 53% (4‒6 points), and 91% (7‒9 points). Conclusions A point‐based risk score combining functional dependence, cerebral MRI measures, and neuropsychological test scores provided good accuracy for prediction of conversion from amnestic MCI to AD.