S3‐01‐05: Depression, stress, and risk for Alzheimer's disease

Background: In recent years, the focus of etiologic research for dementia, especially Alzheimer’s disease, has been in three main areas of investigation: neuro-imaging, neuro-genetics, and neuropsychological testing. In each of these areas, strong determinants of dementia have been identified. The strong associations of hippocampal atrophy, carriership of the APOE e4 allele, and memory performance with dementia and Alzheimer’s disease have been well-documented. The predictive utility of these has mostly been investigated in clinical samples. In this study, the predictive accuracy of these risk factors is assessed in a population-based setting and by using incident dementia cases. Methods: We used data from the Rotterdam Scan Study, which is a population-based cohort study with extensive data on risk factors and more than 10 years of follow-up for dementia, to investigate the predictive utility of hippocampal atrophy, carriership of APOE e4, and memory performance. We studied these risk factors separately and in combined models, and investigated the prediction at different follow-up time points. Results: These data show that though each of these risk factors strongly associates with dementia, their predictive utility beyond age and sex decreases with longer follow-up times, i.e. the utility for early prediction is limited. Conclusions: Based on these findings the implications for future research are discussed, both regarding etiology and prediction.