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P3‐001: Predictors of dementia: Longitudinal findings from age 78 to 85
Author(s) -
Jacobs Jeremy M.,
Maaravi Yoram,
Stessman Jochanan
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
alzheimer's and dementia
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.713
H-Index - 118
eISSN - 1552-5279
pISSN - 1552-5260
DOI - 10.1016/j.jalz.2010.05.1494
Subject(s) - dementia , longitudinal study , medicine , demography , psychosocial , logistic regression , cohort , gerontology , cohort study , population , psychiatry , disease , environmental health , pathology , sociology
Background: Cross-sectional and longitudinal data confirm the escalating prevalence and incidence of dementia with increasing age. Among longitudinal studies, lack of consensus concerning risk factors exists. We present longitudinal data to examine potential risk factors for the onset of dementia between ages 78 to 85. Methods: The Jerusalem Longitudinal Study (1990-2010) follows a representative birth cohort (born 1920-1921) of West Jerusalem residents from age 70 (1990) until the present time. Subjects underwent comprehensive assessment for demographic, psychosocial, functional medical and cognitive status at ages 70, 78 and 85. Using the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), dementia was defined as MMSE 24. The study population comprised 324 dementia-free subjects aged 78 reexamined at age 85, after excluding subjects with MMSE 24 at age 78 (n 1⁄4 13, 3.8%). Bivariate analysis of health variables at age 78 with dementia at age 85, and logistic regression models were performed. Results: A total of 45 subjects (13.9%) developed dementia at age 85, with no differences between males (13.9%) and females (13.8%). Numerous measures at age 78 were associated with subsequent dementia by age 85: education ( 12 vs. >12 years; 24% vs. 6%, p < 0.0001), financial status (difficult vs. fair/ good; 21%vs 10%, p < 0.01), social support (poor vs. good; 20% vs. 8%, p,<0.01), reliance on children (poor vs. good; 20% vs. 12%, p1⁄4 0.07), reading activity (less than daily vs. daily; 24% vs. 7%, p < 0.0001), Katz Activities of Daily Living (dependence vs. independence; 33%vs. 13%, p< 0.05), affect (depressed vs. not depressed); 25%vs. 11%, p < 0.005). Non significant associations were observed for religious observance, family status (currently married or not), activities such as leaving the house daily, volunteering, hobbies, level of physical activity, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and hypertension. A logistic regression model included as co variables: gender, financial status, educational level, ADL, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, hypertension, depression. Only low educational status at age 78 was found to significantly predict subsequent dementia at age 85 (Odds Ratio 5.23, 95% Confidence Interval 2.2-12.3). Conclusions: This long term 7-year follow up of community dwelling elderly, free from dementia at age 78, found the only predictor of subsequent decline to dementia was educational status.