O4‐05‐04: Identification of prodromal Alzheimer's with serial neuropsychological tests

memory complaints, and the APOE e4 carriage was best in predicting incident probable Alzheimer dementia (R 1⁄4 0.42). An area under the ROC curve of 0.91 was reached. The model achieved a positive predictive value of 23.3% and a negative predictive value of 98.7% and is able to predict Alzheimer dementia with a sensitivity of 82.8% and specificity of 82.4%. Conclusions: AD can be predicted by neuropsychological instruments measuring episodic memory and motor speed. 98.7% of subjects at age 75 years could be predicted as remaining nondemented at age 80 years. Whether the age associated cognitive slowing expressed as a decline in motor speed is a predictor of AD needs further inverstigation.