Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula | Zendy

Damon Toth | Zendy; Windy Tanner | Zendy; Karim Khader | Zendy; Adi V. Gundlapalli | Zendy

Open Access

Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula

Author(s) -

Damon Toth,

Windy Tanner,

Karim Khader,

Adi V. Gundlapalli

Publication year - 2016

Publication title -

epidemics

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 2.023

H-Index - 41

eISSN - 1755-4365

pISSN - 1878-0067

DOI - 10.1016/j.epidem.2016.04.002

Subject(s) - outbreak , peninsula , middle east respiratory syndrome , transmissibility (structural dynamics) , middle east , geography , transmission (telecommunications) , demography , medicine , covid-19 , virology , disease , archaeology , physics , engineering , vibration isolation , quantum mechanics , sociology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , electrical engineering , vibration

We quantify outbreak risk after importations of Middle East respiratory syndrome outside the Arabian Peninsula. Data from 31 importation events show strong statistical support for lower transmissibility after early transmission generations. Our model projects the risk of ≥10, 100, and 500 transmissions as 11%, 2%, and 0.02%, and ≥1, 2, 3, and 4 generations as 23%, 14%, 0.9%, and 0.05%, respectively. Our results suggest tempered risk of large, long-lasting outbreaks with appropriate control measures.

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