Open AccessGulf Stream forcing of the winter North Atlantic oscillation
Author(s) -
Wu Peili,
Rodwell Mark J.
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
atmospheric science letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.951
H-Index - 45
ISSN - 1530-261X
DOI - 10.1016/j.atmoscilet.2003.12.002
Subject(s) - climatology , north atlantic oscillation , forcing (mathematics) , gulf stream , environmental science , sea surface temperature , heat flux , flux (metallurgy) , oscillation (cell signaling) , range (aeronautics) , atmosphere (unit) , atlantic multidecadal oscillation , atmospheric sciences , geology , meteorology , heat transfer , geography , physics , materials science , genetics , biology , metallurgy , composite material , thermodynamics
Using observational datasets and coupled model simulations, it is shown that a surface heat flux pattern associated with Gulf Stream variability plays a role in forcing the winter North Atlantic oscillation. It is suggested that by monitoring the Gulf Stream, it may be possible to produce a useful long‐range NAO forecast. By analysing surface heat flux patterns rather than sea‐surface temperatures (as used in previous studies), we find agreement between observational and model‐based results. The results suggest that there may be systematic errors in the modelled surface heat‐flux sensitivity to SST anomalies but that the modelled atmosphere tends to respond correctly to the heat fluxes it is ‘given’. Copyright © 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society.