Fractional mathematical modeling for epidemic prediction of COVID-19 in Egypt | Zendy

W. E. Raslan | Zendy

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Fractional mathematical modeling for epidemic prediction of COVID-19 in Egypt

Author(s) -

W. E. Raslan

Publication year - 2021

Publication title -

ain shams engineering journal

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.505

H-Index - 46

eISSN - 2090-4495

pISSN - 2090-4479

DOI - 10.1016/j.asej.2020.10.027

Subject(s) - covid-19 , quarantine , transmission (telecommunications) , epidemic model , mathematical model , derivative (finance) , work (physics) , fractional calculus , basic reproduction number , corona (planetary geology) , mathematics , econometrics , virology , computer science , statistics , engineering , disease , physics , medicine , infectious disease (medical specialty) , outbreak , biology , economics , environmental health , telecommunications , ecology , mechanical engineering , population , pathology , astrobiology , venus , financial economics

In this work the concept of fractional derivative is used to improve a mathematical model for the spread of the novel strain of corona virus disease COVID-19 in Egypt. We establish the dynamics model to predict the transmission of COVID-19. The results predicted by the model show a good agreement with the actual reported data. The effect of precautionary measures on the behavior of the model was studied and it was confirmed that the quarantine period should be long enough to achieve the desired result.

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