Open AccessEstablishing a risk scoring system for predicting erosive esophagitis
Author(s) -
Hung HungHsu,
Su ChienWei,
Wang YuanJen,
Luo JiingChyuan,
Leu HsinBang,
Huang HuiChun,
Yang YingYing,
Chen TsengShing,
Lu ChingLiang,
Hou MingChih,
Chan WanLeong,
Lin HanChieh,
Chang FullYoung,
Lee FaYauh,
Lee ShouDong
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
advances in digestive medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2351-9800
DOI - 10.1016/j.aidm.2015.04.003
Subject(s) - medicine , waist , body mass index , logistic regression , risk factor , framingham risk score , gastroenterology , disease
Summary Objective This study aims to establish a noninvasive scoring system to predict the risk of erosive esophagitis (EE). Methods From 2002 to 2009, a total of 34,346 consecutive adults who underwent health check‐ups and upper gastrointestinal endoscopy were retrospectively enrolled. Of the participants, 22,892 in the earlier two‐thirds period of examination were defined as the training set and the remaining 11,454 as the validation set. EE was diagnosed by upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Independent risk factors associated with EE were analyzed by multivariate analysis using a logistic regression model with the forward stepwise selection procedure in the training set. Subsequently, an EE risk scoring system was established and weighted by β coefficient. This risk scoring system was further validated in the validation set. Results In the training set, older age, male gender, higher body mass index, higher waist circumference, higher serum triglyceride, and lower high‐density lipid cholesterol levels were independent risk factors for predicting EE. According to the β coefficient value of each independent risk factor, the total score ranging from 0 to 10 was established, and then low‐ (0–3), moderate‐ (4–6), and high‐risk (7–10) groups were identified. In the validation set, the prevalence rates of EE in the low‐, moderate‐, and high‐risk groups were 5.15%, 15.76% and 26.11%, respectively ( p < 0.001). Conclusion This simple noninvasive risk scoring system, including factors of age, gender, body mass index, waist circumference, triglyceride, and high‐density lipid cholesterol, effectively predicted EE and stratified its incidence.