A six compartments with time-delay model SHIQRD for the COVID-19 pandemic in India: During lockdown and beyond | Zendy

Avishek Adhikary | Zendy; Avijit Pal | Zendy

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A six compartments with time-delay model SHIQRD for the COVID-19 pandemic in India: During lockdown and beyond

Author(s) -

Avishek Adhikary,

Avijit Pal

Publication year - 2021

Publication title -

alexandria engineering journal

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.584

H-Index - 58

eISSN - 2090-2670

pISSN - 1110-0168

DOI - 10.1016/j.aej.2021.06.027

Subject(s) - pandemic , covid-19 , outbreak , lock (firearm) , basic reproduction number , population , computer science , sample (material) , epidemic model , geography , infectious disease (medical specialty) , demography , virology , biology , medicine , disease , sociology , archaeology , pathology , chemistry , chromatography

Dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in India are different from other countries for her huge population and different administrative approaches. This paper presents a six compartments (SHIQRD) model with different time delays between them, to analyse and forecast the COVID-19 pandemic in India. The model introduces separate compartments for ‘home-quarantined’, ‘quarantined infectious’, and ‘undetected infectious’ pertaining to the Indian scenario. It also incorporates incubation time, sample testing time, and recovery window as time delays between blocks. With the proposed model, reproduction number of different phases during lock-down are evaluated. Besides, dynamics of pandemic for the next one year are also explored.

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