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A simulation study of smoothing constant limits for an adaptive forecasting system
Author(s) -
Flowers A.Dale
Publication year - 1980
Publication title -
journal of operations management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.649
H-Index - 191
eISSN - 1873-1317
pISSN - 0272-6963
DOI - 10.1016/0272-6963(80)90016-9
Subject(s) - smoothing , computer science , constant (computer programming) , range (aeronautics) , set (abstract data type) , term (time) , exponential smoothing , cover (algebra) , econometrics , operations research , industrial engineering , mathematical optimization , mathematics , engineering , computer vision , programming language , mechanical engineering , physics , quantum mechanics , aerospace engineering
A set of computer simulation experiments were designed to investigate the use of Winters' forecasting models with the adaptive system of Trigg and Leach for short term forecasting. These two methods are popular and effective methods used for short term forecasting, but no systematic study of their joint usage has been reported. The results provide a set of smoothing constant limits which yielded accurate forecasts for the experimental conditions investigated. The experimental conditions were designed to cover as wide a range of situations as possible to maximize potential usefulness to practitioners.