Open AccessScenarios to explore the futures of the emerging technology of organic and large area electronics
Author(s) -
Alireza Parandian,
Arie Rip
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
european journal of futures research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.436
H-Index - 15
eISSN - 2195-4194
pISSN - 2195-2248
DOI - 10.1007/s40309-013-0009-2
Subject(s) - futures contract , sociotechnical system , emerging technologies , electronics , robustness (evolution) , computer science , knowledge management , management science , business , engineering , artificial intelligence , biochemistry , chemistry , finance , electrical engineering , gene
Emerging technologies pose challenges for futures research because of their uncertainties combined with promises. Actors are anticipating and acting strategically. Sociotechnical scenarios building on endogenous futures support and enlighten actors. Such scenarios contribute to “strategic intelligence” about the technologies and their embedding in society. Organic and large area electronics promise to substitute silicon-based technologies, but firms and potential users are reluctant to invest. Ways to break through this “waiting game” are the starting point for scenarios that were developed as in an input in strategy articulation workshops with different stakeholders and third parties. The scenarios are offered as they were an input in the workshops and are annotated to show the robustness of their construction. Recent developments confirm the diagnosis of the dynamics of the domai