Predicting patterns of intentional introduction of non‐native largemouth bass into farm ponds in northeastern Japan

Non‐native species are difficult to eradicate or control once established. Thus, the prevention of invasions is a high priority for conserving native ecosystems. Our objective was to determine the factors that influence illegal introductions of non‐native largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ) and to develop a model that could be used to predict the pattern of future illegal introduction by anglers. We used generalized linear modeling (GLM) to evaluate the relationship between landscape and environmental factors and the presence of bass in farm ponds. Our results suggest that the occurrence of bass was primarily associated with pond size, distance of ponds from the urban center, and the proportion of the pond shoreline covered with a concrete revetment. We conclude that introductions occurred in ponds that were: easier to locate on a map, closer to anglers’ residential areas, and more easily accessible to the pond shore. Last, we suggest our predictive model could be used for preventive measures, such as identifying other ponds most at risk of future illegal introduction of non‐native bass.