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Risk of extinction and categories of endangerment: perspectives from long‐lived reptiles
Author(s) -
Webb G. J. W.,
Carrillo C. E.
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
population ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.819
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1438-390X
pISSN - 1438-3896
DOI - 10.1007/s101440050004
Subject(s) - iucn red list , extinction (optical mineralogy) , threatened species , conservation dependent species , near threatened species , biology , ecology , extinction event , demography , habitat , population , paleontology , biological dispersal , sociology
Abstract The IUCN Red List of Threatened Animals is an important conservation tool, but the accuracy of predictions about risks of global extinction within 10 years or three generations is difficult to test objectively. In this study, we compare IUCN predictions with the results of attempts to derive realistic scenarios that could lead to the global extinction of six species of long‐lived reptiles. For three species, the IUCN predictions matched real events reasonably well but still overestimated risks of global extinction. For the other species, the predictions did not match real events. Reasons why disparities occur are discussed.