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Combined effect of ENSO and SAM on the population dynamics of the invasive yellowjacket wasp in central Chile
Author(s) -
Estay Sergio A.,
Lima Mauricio
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
population ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.819
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1438-390X
pISSN - 1438-3896
DOI - 10.1007/s10144-009-0179-8
Subject(s) - overwintering , el niño southern oscillation , nest (protein structural motif) , precipitation , ecology , biology , population , climatology , population density , southern oscillation , oscillation (cell signaling) , atmospheric sciences , environmental science , geography , meteorology , demography , physics , biochemistry , genetics , sociology , geology
The population dynamics of the yellowjacket wasp ( Vespula germanica Fabricus) in central Chile were analyzed for the first time. Using a simple Ricker logistic model and adding the effects of local weather variables (temperature and precipitation) and large‐scale climate phenomena as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), we modeled the interannual fluctuations in nest density. The best model according to the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) included 1‐year‐lag negative feedback combined with the positive additive effects of ENSO and SAM. According to this model, yellowjacket nest density was favored by warm and dry winters, which probably influenced the survival of overwintering queens. Large‐scale climatic variables [Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and SAM] described the effect of exogenous factors in wasp fluctuations better than local weather variables did. Our results emphasize the usefulness of climate indices and simple theoretical‐based models in insect ecological research.