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On the basic reproduction number in a random environment
Author(s) -
Nicolas Bacaër,
Mohamed Khaladi
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
journal of mathematical biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.928
H-Index - 97
eISSN - 1432-1416
pISSN - 0303-6812
DOI - 10.1007/s00285-012-0611-0
Subject(s) - markov chain , population , spectral radius , mathematics , discrete time and continuous time , position (finance) , scalar (mathematics) , statistical physics , population model , reproduction , basic reproduction number , statistics , physics , biology , demography , ecology , geometry , eigenvalues and eigenvectors , finance , quantum mechanics , sociology , economics
The concept of basic reproduction number R0 in population dynamics is studied in the case of random environments. For simplicity the dependence between successive environments is supposed to follow a Markov chain. R0 is the spectral radius of a next-generation operator. Its position with respect to 1 always determines population growth or decay in simulations, unlike another parameter suggested in a recent article (Hernandez-Suarez et al., Theor Popul Biol, doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2012.05.004 , 2012). The position of the latter with respect to 1 determines growth or decay of the population's expectation. R0 is easily computed in the case of scalar population models without any structure. The main emphasis is on discrete-time models but continuous-time models are also considered.

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