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Projections and prospects for the lauric oils: 1972–1987
Author(s) -
Labys Walter C.
Publication year - 1972
Publication title -
journal of the american oil chemists' society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.512
H-Index - 117
eISSN - 1558-9331
pISSN - 0003-021X
DOI - 10.1007/bf02633398
Subject(s) - economics , supply and demand , set (abstract data type) , oil supply , lauric acid , macroeconomics , computer science , engineering , chemistry , mechanical engineering , fatty acid , organic chemistry , programming language
A set of economic forecasts based on both quantitative and qualitative analysis of market prospects is presented. The forecasts have been more general than particular, but this has been the result of the difficulties of analyzing market prospects for a large number of specialized end‐uses. Several basic uncertainties which limit the fulfillment of these forecasts are reviewed. The demand forecasts presented hopefully will be more meaningful as the surrounding uncertainties are lessened, especially with regard to supply. At present it appears that the Philippine coconut situation is improving with potential export availabilities in the near future closer to the high assumption than the medium assumption. Should no typhoons or droughts set back the anticipated increases for the Philippines, we should be entering a period of greater lauric oil export availabilities. No anticipated increases are foreseen immediately for Ceylon or Indonesia. Given the existence of adequate supplies of lauric oils on a world basis, the demand for these oils is likely to be steady, although increasing only slowly. This conclusion, of course, assumes that a period of adequate supplies will foster a price level which is both reasonably low and reasonably stable. Such an outcome is difficult to envision given the random fluctuations in supply which the industry has habitually experienced. However, should this prophecy be fulfilled, it will be welcome news indeed.