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On the nature of errors involved in estimating stage‐specific survival rates by Southwood's method for a population with overlapping stages
Author(s) -
Sawyer A. J.,
Haynes D. L.
Publication year - 1984
Publication title -
population ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.819
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1438-390X
pISSN - 1438-3896
DOI - 10.1007/bf02515498
Subject(s) - survivorship curve , stage (stratigraphy) , estimation , statistics , survival analysis , population , mortality rate , survival rate , mathematics , demography , econometrics , biology , medicine , engineering , surgery , paleontology , sociology , systems engineering
Summary This paper has examined the effect of within‐stage mortality on the estimation of stage‐specific survival rates by Southwood's (1978, p. 358) method. As pointed out by Southwood , both the severity and timing of mortality affect the mean duration of a life stage, and consequently the estimate of the number of individuals entering that stage. Knowledge of the form of the survivorship curve permits correction of the estimate under certain circumstances. The use of Southwood's method with two overlapping stages having different rates and patterns of mortality leads to complex errors in the estimation of survival for the first stage. The nature of these errors is examined analytically and via a simulation model. Southwood's method is fairly robust, with moderate differences in mortality rates leading to acceptable errors in estimating survival for the first stage. When both the rate and pattern of mortality in both life stages are the same, then the survival estimate is made without error. Precise estimates of stage‐specific survival will not usually be possible with Southwood's method because of the errors introduced by the very parameters being measured. Direct measurement of mortality rates and survivorship patterns (see Southwood , 1978, p. 309) is strongly advised, at least in preliminary work.