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Intervening in pest outbreaks: Simulation studies with the western tent caterpillar
Author(s) -
Thompson W. A.,
Vertinsky I. B.,
Wellington W. G.
Publication year - 1981
Publication title -
population ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.819
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1438-390X
pISSN - 1438-3896
DOI - 10.1007/bf02514091
Subject(s) - outbreak , population , biology , pest analysis , caterpillar , ecology , demography , toxicology , lepidoptera genitalia , virology , horticulture , sociology
Summary A stochastic model mimicking the behavior of the western tent‐caterpillar populations on Vancouver Island was used to study methods of suppressing an outbreak. Since many forest defoliators often receive only one treatment during their outbreak period, we applied a hypothetical single treatment at different times during a simulated outbreak, to assess the influence of timing. Intervening early in the cycle was the best method of suppressing numbers below a tolerable threshold during a particular outbreak. Treatment during the most rapid period of increase was less effective, and treatments at or beyond the peak provided little relief during that particular outbreak. For longer‐term protection, however, treating the refugia of a declining population was far superior to less selective intervention. Concentrating the treatment within these refuges decimated the breeding stock surviving there at a time when the population could least afford such injury. Timing and focussing the intervention to obtain that maximal impact thus prolonged the period of suppression during the next outbreak.