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Is reversing the decline of Asian elephants in North American zoos possible? An individual‐based modeling approach
Author(s) -
Faust Lisa J.,
Thompson Steven D.,
Earnhardt Joanne M.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
zoo biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.5
H-Index - 54
eISSN - 1098-2361
pISSN - 0733-3188
DOI - 10.1002/zoo.20054
Subject(s) - population , population decline , biology , population growth , demography , reproduction , population model , population size , population momentum , asian elephant , birth rate , ecology , elephas , fertility , sociology
Demographic models are important tools for assessing population status, diagnosing potential causes of population decline, and comparing management strategies that might change population trajectory. The population of Asian elephants ( Elephas maximus ) maintained in North American zoos has been declining for the past decade, and Wiese ([2000] Zoo. Biol. 19:299–309) predicted a continued decline in the population using an age‐based matrix model. We developed an individual‐based model to further explore the demographic issues of the population. Our model allowed us to quantitatively evaluate the prospects for slowing or reversing the decline given the potential management strategies of improving reproduction, reducing infant mortality, altering birth sex ratio, and recruiting additional individuals from outside the population. Our simulations showed that if current demographic trends continued, the population would continue to decline at 2%/year. It was possible to create sustainable simulations, but these required a large increase in the annual number of births produced. Increasing reproduction was the most effective strategy to slow the decline, whereas other management strategies had the most impact when combined with increases in reproduction. Almost all simulations resulted in large changes in population structure, with increases in the male population and decreases in the female population. Given the population's demographic issues, it will be difficult to either increase the population substantially or sustain it at its current size. Zoo Biol 25:201–218, 2006. © 2005 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.