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Zahedan climate and January–March composite analysis forecasts
Author(s) -
Mirafzal Lily
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
weather
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.467
H-Index - 40
eISSN - 1477-8696
pISSN - 0043-1656
DOI - 10.1002/wea.2997
Subject(s) - geopotential height , climatology , precipitation , oscillation (cell signaling) , composite number , streak , la niña , environmental science , el niño southern oscillation , southern oscillation , geography , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geology , mathematics , chemistry , mineralogy , biochemistry , algorithm
This study shows that the mean monthly temperature and precipitation for Zahedan from January to March are predictable. They have oscillatory behavior in relation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. The 200hPa vector wind composite mean maps from January to March show that a jet streak oscillates between 27°N and 30°N, to the west of Iran. These oscillations result in strong contour gradients of 1000hPa geopotential height during strong La Niña events; by contrast, they result in weak contour gradients during El Niño events in the southeast of the country. The composite forecasts for Zahedan based on El Niño/La Niña seem to be skillful for the strong events and show some skill for neutral events. The applicability of the forecasts in water management, agriculture, health, and other fields is considerable.