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Institutional and environmental effectiveness: Will the Paris Agreement work?
Author(s) -
Dimitrov Radoslav,
Hovi Jon,
Sprinz Detlef F.,
Sælen Håkon,
Underdal Arild
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
wiley interdisciplinary reviews: climate change
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.678
H-Index - 75
eISSN - 1757-7799
pISSN - 1757-7780
DOI - 10.1002/wcc.583
Subject(s) - trilemma , corporate governance , strengths and weaknesses , political science , work (physics) , compliance (psychology) , climate change , global governance , business , psychology , engineering , finance , social psychology , mechanical engineering , ecology , exchange rate , biology
The 2015 Paris Agreement (PA) has been widely hailed as a diplomatic triumph and a breakthrough in global climate cooperation. However, it is commonly accepted that the PA's collective goal—keeping global warming “well below” 2°C above preindustrial levels—remains ambitious. Making matters even more challenging, in 2017, global CO 2 emissions resumed growth after 3 years of near standstill. In 2018, this growth accelerated. It is therefore extremely important that the PA's institutional architecture meet expectations concerning its ability to induce member countries to promise and deliver emissions reductions. This study offers a review of the rapidly growing literature on the PA, to assess its strengths and weaknesses, its significance, and its prospects. We focus on evaluations of its institutional structure and its ability to induce member countries to implement policies. We frame the issues as a trilemma: the challenge of simultaneously satisfying all three main conditions for effectiveness—broad participation, deep commitments, and satisfactory compliance rates. Based on our review, we conclude that the key challenge for the PA will likely be to facilitate sufficiently fast ratcheting‐up of nationally determined contributions, while keeping compliance rates high. This article is categorized under: Policy and Governance > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance