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Can we trust climate models?
Author(s) -
Hargreaves J. C.,
Annan J. D.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
wiley interdisciplinary reviews: climate change
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.678
H-Index - 75
eISSN - 1757-7799
pISSN - 1757-7780
DOI - 10.1002/wcc.288
Subject(s) - climate model , climatology , falsifiability , climate change , environmental science , tropics , scale (ratio) , general circulation model , climate system , meteorology , geography , geology , ecology , philosophy , oceanography , cartography , epistemology , biology
What are the predictions of climate models, should we believe them, and are they falsifiable? Probably the most iconic and influential result arising from climate models is the prediction that, dependent on the rate of increase of CO 2 emissions, global and annual mean temperature will rise by around 2–4°C over the 21st century. We argue that this result is indeed credible, as are the supplementary predictions that the land will on average warm by around 50% more than the oceans, high latitudes more than the tropics, and that the hydrological cycle will generally intensify. Beyond these and similar broad statements, however, we presently find little evidence of trustworthy predictions at fine spatial scale and annual to decadal timescale from climate models. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models