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Can we calculate drought risk… and do we need to?
Author(s) -
Hall Jim W.,
Leng Guoyong
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
wiley interdisciplinary reviews: water
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.413
H-Index - 24
ISSN - 2049-1948
DOI - 10.1002/wat2.1349
Subject(s) - flooding (psychology) , flood myth , natural hazard , risk management , obstacle , agriculture , environmental science , water resource management , environmental resource management , geography , business , meteorology , psychology , archaeology , finance , psychotherapist
There is growing interest in the possibility of global analysis of drought risk, following the rapid development of global models of flood risk and other natural hazards. While this is an attractive idea, we argue that it is not actually possible as, unlike for flooding, it is not possible to unambiguously distinguish between “drought” and “nondrought” events, in particular when considering the impacts of droughts on agriculture. Any definition of a drought event depends upon the choice of drought index, which is to some extent arbitrary. Nonetheless, the absence of unambiguous quantified estimates of drought risk need not be an obstacle to rational drought risk management, as it is still possible to evaluate and compare the benefits of different drought risk management options. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change Science of Water > Methods