Open AccessGallbladder polyps growth rate is an independent risk factor for neoplastic polyps
Author(s) -
Han Ji Won,
Choi Young Hoon,
Lee In Seok,
Choi Ho Joong,
Hong Tae Ho,
You Young Kyoung
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
united european gastroenterology journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.667
H-Index - 35
eISSN - 2050-6414
pISSN - 2050-6406
DOI - 10.1002/ueg2.12274
Subject(s) - medicine , gallbladder , gastroenterology , odds ratio , receiver operating characteristic , cholecystectomy , confidence interval , risk factor , gallbladder cancer , radiology
Background The size of gallbladder (GB) polyps is a representative risk factor for neoplastic polyps. However, whether growth rate during follow‐up is associated with neoplastic polyps remains unclear. Methods From 2009 to 2019, a cohort of patients with GB polyps who underwent cholecystectomy was enrolled. We included only patients who underwent at least two abdominal ultrasonography procedures at least 6 months apart prior to cholecystectomy. Performance and optimal cutoff value of polyp growth rate for predicting neoplastic polyps were estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. In addition to growth rate, several other variables considered suitable for predicting neoplastic polyps were also investigated. A nomogram was created to predict neoplastic polyps. Results A total of 239 patients with neoplastic polyps ( n = 27, 11.3%) and non‐neoplastic polyps ( n = 212, 88.7%) were included. The median follow‐up period was 28.5 months. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of polyp growth rate for neoplastic polyps was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.59–0.72). The growth rate cutoff value for prediction of neoplastic polyps was 3 mm/year (sensitivity, 37.0%; specificity, 86.3%). Multivariate analysis identified several factors predicting neoplastic polyps: polyp size ≥10 mm (odds ratio [OR], 3.74, p = 0.041), solitary polyp (OR, 3.92, p = 0.004), and polyp growth rate ≥ 3 mm/year (OR, 2.75, p = 0.031). The AUROC of the nomogram using these three significant factors in multivariate analysis was 0.71. Conclusion GB polyps with a growth rate of over 3 mm per year on ultrasonography during follow‐up should be considered a risk factor for neoplastic polyps.