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Integrated assessments of global warming issues and an overview of project PHOENIX—A comprehensive approach
Author(s) -
Mori Shunsuke,
Akimoto Keigo,
Homma Takashi,
Sano Fuminori,
Oda Junichiro,
Hayashi Ayami,
Dowaki Kiyoshi,
Tomoda Toshimasa
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
ieej transactions on electrical and electronic engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.254
H-Index - 30
eISSN - 1931-4981
pISSN - 1931-4973
DOI - 10.1002/tee.20081
Subject(s) - global warming , impact assessment , environmental resource management , computer science , climate change , operations research , environmental science , engineering , biology , ecology , public administration , political science
This paper presents a new integrated assessment model (IAM) approach to global warming issues and reviews the ongoing approach to Project PHOENIX—Paths toward Harmony Of Environment, Natural resources and Industry compleX, developed by the Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE). Existing integrated assessment approaches based on cost–benefit analysis calculate the potential costs under certain emission control policies, evaluating the warming damage in monetary terms and then exploring the preferable options. However, these approaches are not sufficient when we take into account the possibility of irreversible impacts, such as the shutdown of ocean thermohaline circulation and extinction of species. This project aims at providing integrated information and assessments for the global warming issues by gathering scientific information and by developing multimodels. For instance, the energy‐economics model DNE‐21 is expanded to generate the carbon emission path until 2200. A potential agricultural productivity model based on grid geographic information system (GIS) data is developed to assess the effect of climate change on crop production. DEARS, an intertemporal optimization multisector, multiregional, CGE energy‐economics model, is also developed to look at the effects of climate policy on industry sectors. Finally, we summarize the assessments and findings through the procedure in a ‘scoreboard’ for the assessment based on the expert judgments. © 2006 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.