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Predicting the Production of the World's Cephalopod Fisheries by Means of Differences in Level of Development and Production Trends
Author(s) -
Peng DaoMin,
Mu YongTong
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
transactions of the american fisheries society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.696
H-Index - 86
eISSN - 1548-8659
pISSN - 0002-8487
DOI - 10.1002/tafs.10077
Subject(s) - cephalopod , china , fishery , geography , production (economics) , biology , economics , macroeconomics , archaeology
Using cephalopod production data from the FishStatJ database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, this study (1) measured the degree of development of the cephalopod fisheries in 10 major cephalopod‐producing countries; (2) classified each of the 10 fisheries according to its development level; and (3) estimated cephalopod production by the world as a whole as well as by China and Japan individually in 2017, 2018, and 2019. For objectives (1) and (2), the grey constellation cluster model was used. The results of the analysis indicate that cephalopod fisheries in the major producing countries can be roughly divided into four classes: excellent (class I), good (class II ), weak (class III ), and poor (class IV ), with Japan, China, and South Korea being in class I; Thailand, Peru, Viet Nam, India, and Morocco being in class II ; and Indonesia and Chile being in classes III and IV , respectively. The grey interval forecasting model was used for objective (3). The model estimates that cephalopod production by the world as a whole will be in the range 5.44–5.76 million metric tons (t) over the period studied and that by China in the range 1.77–1.98 million t. Both areas show rising trends, with average annual growth rates of 2.88% and 5.90%, respectively. By contrast, cephalopod production by Japan is estimated to decline from 0.24 to 0.22 million t, with an average annual growth rate of −2.82%.