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Principles and guidelines for project risk management
Author(s) -
Pennock Michael J.,
Haimes Yacov Y.
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
systems engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.474
H-Index - 50
eISSN - 1520-6858
pISSN - 1098-1241
DOI - 10.1002/sys.10009
Subject(s) - risk management , risk analysis (engineering) , identification (biology) , project management , computer science , risk assessment , project risk management , tracking (education) , government (linguistics) , work (physics) , it risk management , scale (ratio) , engineering , project management triangle , systems engineering , business , computer security , mechanical engineering , psychology , pedagogy , linguistics , philosophy , botany , physics , finance , quantum mechanics , biology
The increasing size and complexity of acquisition and development projects in both the public and private sectors has begun to exceed the capabilities of traditional management techniques to control them. This situation had led cost overrun, late delivery, and performance shortfalls to become commonplace. One way to contain these adverse consequences of complexity is through the principled application of risk management. This paper presents a general discussion of the concepts involved in conducting project risk management, which is in large part based on tools and methods currently employed by the authors. While some of these tools and methods are from previously published work, this paper presents them in an integrated methodology and introduces some recent modifications and improvements unpublished heretofore in the literature. Central to these new modifications is an improved method of risk tracking, the objective of which is to monitor risks continuously and to contain them before they get out of hand. The methodology presented in this paper covers risk identification, risk filtration, risk assessment, risk management, and risk tracking for large scale socio‐technological systems such as acquisition or development projects. The emphasis is on the use of ratio scales for risk tracking and avoiding the pitfalls of algebraic operations on ordinal scales for risk filtration. The described methodology is demonstrated via an example involving aircraft development, and there is a discussion of the lessons learned from the application of risk tracking to a government acquisition project. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Syst Eng 5: 89–108, 2002