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Using System Dynamics for Grand Challenges: The ESDMA Approach
Author(s) -
Kwakkel Jan H.,
Pruyt Erik
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
systems research and behavioral science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.371
H-Index - 45
eISSN - 1099-1743
pISSN - 1092-7026
DOI - 10.1002/sres.2225
Subject(s) - system dynamics , scarcity , dynamics (music) , computer science , management science , exploratory analysis , grand challenges , social dynamics , parametrization (atmospheric modeling) , order (exchange) , complex system , exploratory research , data science , risk analysis (engineering) , artificial intelligence , sociology , economics , microeconomics , business , anthropology , pedagogy , physics , finance , quantum mechanics , radiative transfer , operating system
In this paper, we argue and show how system dynamics modelling can be combined with exploratory modelling and analysis in order to address grand societal challenges, which are almost without exception characterized by dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty. Addressing such issues requires the systematic exploration of different hypotheses related to model formulation and model parametrization and their effect on the kinds of behavioral dynamics that can occur. Through two cases, we illustrate the combination of system dynamics and exploratory modelling. The first case illustrates its use for discovering different types of dynamics related to metal and mineral scarcity. The second case illustrates its use for worst‐case discovery in water scarcity. We conclude that exploratory system dynamics modelling represents a promising approach for addressing deeply uncertain dynamically complex societal challenges. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.