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Predicting the lifetime of pull requests in open‐source projects
Author(s) -
Lima Júnior Manoel Limeira,
Soares Daricélio,
Plastino Alexandre,
Murta Leonardo
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of software: evolution and process
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.371
H-Index - 29
eISSN - 2047-7481
pISSN - 2047-7473
DOI - 10.1002/smr.2337
Subject(s) - computer science , margin (machine learning) , regression , word error rate , relation (database) , regression analysis , mean squared prediction error , selection (genetic algorithm) , predictive modelling , data mining , open source , work (physics) , machine learning , artificial intelligence , statistics , software , mathematics , mechanical engineering , engineering , programming language
A recent survey using industrial projects has shown that providing an estimate of the lifetime of pull requests to developers helps to speed up their conclusion. Previous work has explored pull request lifetime prediction in open‐source projects using regression techniques but with a broad margin of error. The first objective of our work was to reduce the average error rate of the prediction obtained by the regression techniques so far. We performed experiments with different regression techniques and achieved a significant decrease in the mean error rate. The second objective of our work was to obtain a more effective and useful predictive model that can classify pull requests according to five discrete time intervals. We proposed new predictive attributes for the estimation of the time intervals and employed attribute selection strategies to identify subsets of attributes that could improve the predictive behavior of the classifiers. Our classification approach achieved the best accuracy in all the 20 projects evaluated in comparison with the literature. The average accuracy was of 45.28% to predict pull request lifetime, with an average normalized improvement of 14.68% in relation to the majority class and 6.49% in relation to the state‐of‐the‐art.