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What to do next? The case for non‐predictive strategy
Author(s) -
Wiltbank Robert,
Dew Nicholas,
Read Stuart,
Sarasvathy Saras D.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
strategic management journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 11.035
H-Index - 286
eISSN - 1097-0266
pISSN - 0143-2095
DOI - 10.1002/smj.555
Subject(s) - presumption , control (management) , independence (probability theory) , process (computing) , economics , computer science , risk analysis (engineering) , business , management science , management , political science , law , operating system , statistics , mathematics
Two prescriptions dominate the topic of what firms should do next in uncertain situations: planning approaches and adaptive approaches. These differ primarily on the appropriate role of prediction in the decision process. Prediction is a central issue in strategy making owing to the presumption that what can be predicted can be controlled. In this paper we argue for the independence of prediction and control. This implies that the pursuit of successful outcomes can occur through control‐oriented approaches that may essentially be non‐predictive. We further develop and highlight control‐oriented approaches with particular emphasis on the question of what organizations should do next. We also explore how these approaches may impact the costs and risks of firm strategies as well as the firm's continual efforts to innovate. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.