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Thinking one step ahead: The use of conjectures in competitor analysis
Author(s) -
Amit Raphael,
Domowitz Ian,
Fershtman Chaim
Publication year - 1988
Publication title -
strategic management journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 11.035
H-Index - 286
eISSN - 1097-0266
pISSN - 0143-2095
DOI - 10.1002/smj.4250090504
Subject(s) - process (computing) , economics , industrial organization , marketing , measure (data warehouse) , management science , business , microeconomics , computer science , operating system , database
An assessment of opponents' reactions to strategic and functional area policy decisions is shown to require knowledge concerning opponents' beliefs about the firm's behavior. This study introduces a methodology for incorporating such conjectures into the business planning process. It presents an analytical measure for these conjectural variations and discusses several illustrations. Examples of the application of the framework are provided by the Japanese flat glass industry and the U.S. domestic coffee roasting industry. The use of a broad range of conjectural variations in competitor analysis is discussed, and implications for business strategy formulation are highlighted.