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Technology search investments: evolutionary, option reasoning, and option pricing approaches
Author(s) -
Miller Kent D.,
Arikan Andaç T.
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
strategic management journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 11.035
H-Index - 286
eISSN - 1097-0266
pISSN - 0143-2095
DOI - 10.1002/smj.392
Subject(s) - bounded rationality , economics , flexibility (engineering) , construct (python library) , valuation of options , rationality , microeconomics , computer science , financial economics , management , political science , law , programming language
How do firms allocate limited search resources among substituting technologies with uncertain prospects? This paper contrasts three different approaches. The first follows evolutionary theorists' portrayals of decision‐making processes under bounded rationality. The second approach—real option reasoning—fosters flexibility by investing in more than one technology and postponing the decision to specialize. Following the third approach—real option pricing—firms base their search investments on forward‐looking calculations of technology option prices. We lay out the contrasting theoretical assumptions behind each of these three approaches and construct a simulation model to compare their implications. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.