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Predicting a firm's forecasting ability: the roles of organizational illusion of control and organizational attention
Author(s) -
Durand Rodolphe
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
strategic management journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 11.035
H-Index - 286
eISSN - 1097-0266
pISSN - 0143-2095
DOI - 10.1002/smj.339
Subject(s) - illusion of control , illusion , reciprocal , control (management) , competence (human resources) , organizational performance , econometrics , economics , microeconomics , psychology , social psychology , management , cognitive psychology , linguistics , philosophy
Recent research shows that forecasting ability is an organizational distinctive competence. We propose and test a model accounting for interfirm differences in forecasting ability. After controlling for reciprocal effects, we find that two principal firm‐level factors (i.e., organizational illusion of control and organizational attention) influence both bias and magnitude of errors in estimates. High organizational illusion of control increases positive forecast bias. As for organizational attention, higher relative investments in market information appear to reduce positive forecast bias and magnitude of errors; they also moderate forecast bias due to illusion of control. Finally, higher relative investments in employee capability increase both negative forecast bias and, unexpectedly, magnitude of errors for the majority of observed cases. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.