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A binary hidden Markov model on spatial network for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease spreading pattern analysis
Author(s) -
Shin Yei Eun,
Liu Dawei,
Sang Huiyan,
Ferguson Toby A.,
Song Peter X. K.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
statistics in medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.996
H-Index - 183
eISSN - 1097-0258
pISSN - 0277-6715
DOI - 10.1002/sim.8956
Subject(s) - amyotrophic lateral sclerosis , hidden markov model , computer science , markov chain , viterbi algorithm , disease , pattern recognition (psychology) , logistic regression , artificial intelligence , machine learning , medicine , pathology
Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a neurological disease that starts at a focal point and gradually spreads to other parts of the nervous system. One of the main clinical symptoms of ALS is muscle weakness. To study spreading patterns of muscle weakness, we analyze spatiotemporal binary muscle strength data, which indicates whether observed muscle strengths are impaired or healthy. We propose a hidden Markov model‐based approach that assumes the observed disease status depends on two latent disease states. The model enables us to estimate the incidence rate of ALS disease and the probability of disease state transition. Specifically, the latter is modeled by a logistic autoregression in that the spatial network of susceptible muscles follows a Markov process. The proposed model is flexible to allow both historical muscle conditions and their spatial relationships to be included in the analysis. To estimate the model parameters, we provide an iterative algorithm to maximize sparse‐penalized likelihood with bias correction, and use the Viterbi algorithm to label hidden disease states. We apply the proposed approach to analyze the ALS patients' data from EMPOWER Study.

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