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Deriving age‐specific incidence from prevalence with an ordinary differential equation
Author(s) -
Brinks Ralph,
Landwehr Sandra,
Icks Andrea,
Koch Michael,
Giani Guido
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
statistics in medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.996
H-Index - 183
eISSN - 1097-0258
pISSN - 0277-6715
DOI - 10.1002/sim.5651
Subject(s) - incidence (geometry) , ordinary differential equation , medicine , kidney disease , disease , set (abstract data type) , mathematics , statistics , demography , computer science , differential equation , mathematical analysis , geometry , sociology , programming language
This article describes new relationships between the age‐specific incidence of, the prevalence of and mortality from a chronic disease. We express these relationships in terms of an ordinary differential equation and form the methodological basis for a novel approach to estimating incidences from age‐specific prevalence data. We examine practical aspects of the relationships and a comparison with a known stochastic method in a simulation study. Finally, we apply the novel method to a data set of renal replacement therapy recorded from patients with chronic kidney failure in a region of Germany with approximately 310,000 inhabitants from 2002 to 2010. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.