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Simultaneous back‐projection of AIDS incidence data for two or more groups
Author(s) -
Marschner Ian C.,
Newstead Stuart V.,
Becker Niels G.
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
statistics in medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.996
H-Index - 183
eISSN - 1097-0258
pISSN - 0277-6715
DOI - 10.1002/sim.4780131808
Subject(s) - pooling , projection (relational algebra) , incidence (geometry) , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , confidence interval , statistics , projections of population growth , population , population projection , demography , back projection , computer science , medicine , mathematics , research methodology , algorithm , artificial intelligence , virology , environmental health , geometry , sociology
Back‐projection of AIDS incidence data is useful for estimating characteristics of the HIV epidemic curve and forms a basis for projections of the AIDS epidemic curve. Its application to subgroups of the population is limited by its imprecision for groups with a small number of cases. Back‐projection can be made more precise by pooling data from different groups and linking their HIV infection intensities by a model. Here we propose a method based on proportional infection intensities and study its performance with simulations and applications to AIDS in different States of Australia and haemophiliacs in the U.S.A. This method of simultaneous back‐projection is shown to reduce substantially the width of confidence intervals for HIV infection intensities and for total numbers infected.