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HIV infection dynamics and intervention experiments in linked risk groups
Author(s) -
Van Druten J. A. M.,
Reintjes A. G. M.,
Jager J. C.,
Heisterkamp S. H.,
Poos M. J. J. C.,
Coutinho R. A.,
Dijkgraaf M. G. W.,
Ruitenberg E. J.
Publication year - 1990
Publication title -
statistics in medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.996
H-Index - 183
eISSN - 1097-0258
pISSN - 0277-6715
DOI - 10.1002/sim.4780090703
Subject(s) - promiscuity , transmission (telecommunications) , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , needle sharing , incidence (geometry) , demography , medicine , intervention (counseling) , computer science , virology , psychology , mathematics , condom , telecommunications , geometry , syphilis , psychiatry , sociology , psychoanalysis
A multigroup transmission model is described to study the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in linked risk groups. The model permits simultaneous investigation of the increase in the number of persons infected with HIV in three main risk groups: promiscuous homo/bisexual men (two levels of promiscuity), intravenous drug users (men and women) and promiscuous heterosexual men and women. Three modes of transmission are considered: anal and vaginal intercourse and needle sharing. The high dimensional parameter space is connected with the HIV incidence through a transmission matrix. This matrix summarizes the annual effective contact rates due to the three transmission modes. The model helps to clarify which data are needed to disentangle the relative contribution of the within‐ and between‐group transmission routes. The model can be used to perform theoretical experiments. Given a specification of a baseline, the potential use of the model is illustrated by a simulation describing the effect of blocking the transmission through needle sharing. Reference is made to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in The Netherlands. The results of the study show that the model can play a part in the classification of HIV prevalence patterns in linked risk groups, in the study of the interaction between the main risk groups and in the theoretical evaluation of intervention measures.