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Assessing diagnostic tests by a strictly proper scoring rule
Author(s) -
Linnet Kristian
Publication year - 1989
Publication title -
statistics in medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.996
H-Index - 183
eISSN - 1097-0258
pISSN - 0277-6715
DOI - 10.1002/sim.4780080510
Subject(s) - univariate , statistics , standard error , set (abstract data type) , test (biology) , computer science , type i and type ii errors , mathematics , medicine , multivariate statistics , paleontology , biology , programming language
Evaluation of univariate quantitative diagnostic tests by strictly proper scoring rules is considered as an alternative to the traditional error rate measures. In principle, the posterior probability of disease as a function of the test value is estimated from training observations, and subsequently the score is assessed on a set of test samples. The same subjects may serve as training and test samples when the bootstrap procedure is applied for estimation of standard errors and correction of bias. The method is demonstrated using serum bile acids and bilirubin in patients with liver disease. The power for comparison of scores from two tests is compared with that from error rate measures for some typical situations.