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Variance estimation for medical decision analysis
Author(s) -
Katz Barry P.,
Hui Siu L.
Publication year - 1989
Publication title -
statistics in medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.996
H-Index - 183
eISSN - 1097-0258
pISSN - 0277-6715
DOI - 10.1002/sim.4780080209
Subject(s) - estimation , computer science , statistics , variance (accounting) , econometrics , mathematics , business , accounting , management , economics
We have derived the variance of an expected utility for a probability tree in medical decision analysis based on a Taylor series approximation of the expected utility as a function of the probability and utility values used in the decision tree. The resulting variance estimate is an algebraic expression of the variances associated with the probability and utility estimates used. We also derive expressions for the case where the input parameter estimates are not independent. We discuss the choice of input parameters and their variance estimates and give an example that compares two protocols for the treatment of chlamydial infection.