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A method for the estimation of chronic disease morbidity and trends from mortality data
Author(s) -
Verdecchia Arduino,
Capocaccia Riccardo,
Egidi Viviana,
Golini Antonio
Publication year - 1989
Publication title -
statistics in medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.996
H-Index - 183
eISSN - 1097-0258
pISSN - 0277-6715
DOI - 10.1002/sim.4780080207
Subject(s) - incidence (geometry) , medicine , estimation , covariate , cohort , disease , lung cancer , breast cancer , demography , statistics , cancer , pathology , mathematics , geometry , management , sociology , economics
Measures of chronic degenerative disease diffusion, such as incidence and prevalence rates, are a basic need for epidemiologists and others working in many fields of human sciences. Equations relating death probabilities to incidence and survival probabilities for chronic degenerative diseases are derived from a cohort point of view. A maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation of incidence as a function of time related covariates. When time series of mortality data are available, the model can be used to describe and analyse levels and dynamics of morbidity. A trial application to lung and breast cancer is given for the province of Varese, Italy, where incidence data are available from the Lombardy Cancer Register.