Premium
Heterogeneity in the probability of HIV transmission per sexual contact: The case of male‐to‐female transmission in penile—vaginal intercourse
Author(s) -
Wiley James A.,
Herschkorn Stephen J.,
Padian Nancy S.
Publication year - 1989
Publication title -
statistics in medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.996
H-Index - 183
eISSN - 1097-0258
pISSN - 0277-6715
DOI - 10.1002/sim.4780080110
Subject(s) - seroconversion , transmission (telecommunications) , sodomy , statistics , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , beta distribution , demography , medicine , mathematics , homosexuality , psychology , virology , computer science , telecommunications , sociology , psychoanalysis
Abstract Recent studies have indicated variation in the infectivity β of HIV among heterosexual couples. We represent this heterogeneity by modelling β as a random variable. Using data on the number of contacts and seroconversion of couples, we fit the model by maximum‐likelihood estimation with a beta distribution and a discrete distribution for β. The estimates indicate the heterogeneity is extreme. The limitations of the model and the implications of the results for epidemiologic spread and further research are discussed.