Premium
Investigations of excess environmental risks around putative sources: Statistical problems and a proposed test
Author(s) -
Stone Richard A.
Publication year - 1988
Publication title -
statistics in medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.996
H-Index - 183
eISSN - 1097-0258
pISSN - 0277-6715
DOI - 10.1002/sim.4780070604
Subject(s) - null hypothesis , estimator , econometrics , bayesian probability , simple (philosophy) , statistics , argument (complex analysis) , coincidence , computer science , statistical hypothesis testing , selection (genetic algorithm) , bayes' theorem , mathematics , artificial intelligence , biology , medicine , epistemology , philosophy , biochemistry , alternative medicine , pathology
Individual reactions to a report which identifies an excess of risk near a putative source are determined mainly by some quoted significance level. One reaction, involving a commonly used ‘coincidence’ argument is given a simple Bayesian explanation. It is argued that interpretations of such reports should if possible allow both for data selection and for uncertainty in the null expectations underlying the significance levels. Tests are proposed, based on the first isotonic regression estimator under an order restriction, which allow for the effects of selecting a study region in the light of the data and have a simple form. Data on cancer incidence around two nuclear plants are used to illustrate.