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A statistical model for hospital admissions caused by seasonal diseases
Author(s) -
Moriña David,
Puig Pedro,
Ríos José,
Vilella Anna,
Trilla Antoni
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
statistics in medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.996
H-Index - 183
eISSN - 1097-0258
pISSN - 0277-6715
DOI - 10.1002/sim.4336
Subject(s) - poisson distribution , autoregressive model , statistics , poisson regression , seasonality , autoregressive integrated moving average , basis (linear algebra) , econometrics , seasonal influenza , series (stratigraphy) , maximum likelihood , computer science , time series , mathematics , medicine , covid-19 , environmental health , paleontology , population , geometry , disease , pathology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , biology
We present a model based on two‐order integer‐valued autoregressive time series to analyze the number of hospital emergency service arrivals caused by diseases that present seasonal behavior. We also introduce a method to describe this seasonality, on the basis of Poisson innovations with monthly means. We show parameter estimation by maximum likelihood and model validation and show several methods for forecasting, on the basis of long‐time means and short‐time and long‐time prediction regions. We analyze an application to model the number of hospital admissions per week caused by influenza. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.