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Growth rates in epidemic models: Application to a model for HIV/AIDS progression
Author(s) -
Gran Jon Michael,
Wasmuth Linn,
Amundsen Ellen J.,
Lindqvist Bo H.,
Aalen Odd O.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
statistics in medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.996
H-Index - 183
eISSN - 1097-0258
pISSN - 0277-6715
DOI - 10.1002/sim.3219
Subject(s) - basic reproduction number , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , reproduction , demography , epidemic model , medicine , immunology , biology , population , sociology , ecology
The most common quantity used to describe the growth of an epidemic when modelling infectious diseases is the basic reproduction number R 0 . While R 0 is most appropriate for epidemics with short‐lasting infections, long‐lasting infections such as HIV/AIDS may call for the use of growth rates with other properties. For a group of multi‐state compartment models we define both R 0 , the actual reproduction number R a ( t ), and the intrinsic growth rate r . We study the relationship between these different reproduction numbers and growth rates and take a brief look at how they could be estimated from actual observed data. The work is illustrated by a model for HIV/AIDS progression among homosexual men in England and Wales. We conclude that other measures of growth, in addition to R 0 , give important supplementary information. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.